3. TBA’s Basis in Logic
The Big Answer explains that all our values are based on the qualities necessary for existence, which were covered briefly in the previous video. In this video, we’re going to explore why these qualities are the objective basis for our values, and why we would expect any consciously held value system to align with these qualities over time.
Something that possesses the qualities necessary to exist is likely to continue existing, while something lacking these qualities is likely to cease to exist. In this way, reality mimics having a preference, where these qualities are considered “good” because reality retains anything that possesses them, while discarding everything else as “bad.” That doesn’t mean we “should” value the same things as reality, but it does mean they’re what we “would” value. Why?
Because it means that these qualities are specifically what evolution is selecting for. Every change in either a physical characteristic or a behaviour that enhances these qualities in some way would increase the likelihood of continuing to exist. And since values determine behaviours, we would also expect organisms to evolve values that are increasingly in line with these qualities over time.
It’s really that simple, but let’s break it down step by step and examine how this pertains to value systems.
1. To value anything, the valuer needs to exist. (and here, the valuer could be individuals or groups - cultures, religions, families, businesses, etc).
2. If the valuer valued anything that led to it being more likely to cease existing, both it and its values would be more likely to cease existing. Conversely, if the valuer valued anything that made it more likely to continue existing, both it and its values would be more likely to continue existing.
[Note: “things” that could be valued could be anything - a physical object, a trait, characteristic, or behaviour, a system of government, money, a virtue, a strategy, etc.]
3. Since we’re talking about likelihoods, Valuer A could value things that increase its likelihood of existing, but Valuer B could value different things that increase its likelihood of existing much more than the things Valuer A valued. In this case, Valuer B is more likely to continue existing than Valuer A, meaning Valuer B’s values are also more likely to continue existing.
Conclusion 1 - Over time, we would expect to see value systems evolve toward those that best increase the likelihood of the valuer's ongoing existence. So far, nothing new, right? But let’s keep going! The key breakthrough in developing this model was simply realizing that…
4. Since there are qualities that are fundamentally and objectively necessary to exist, any value system that increases something’s likelihood of existing does so by increasing these qualities.
5. This could be done in one of two ways: A) Valuing things that usually lead to an increase in these qualities most of the time in most situations, or B) Valuing the qualities directly, and doing whatever will increase them in each situation.
5A. Valuing things that increase these qualities most of the time in most situations is the easiest to evolve, but would lead to the valuer sticking with these things even if a situation arises where they now undermine the qualities, or when something new appears that would do a better job of increasing these qualities.
5B. Valuing the qualities themselves is more challenging and requires more cognitive capabilities, but it enables the valuer to discard things if they aren’t increasing the qualities in a given situation, instead switching to different things or inventing/adopting new things that better achieve these qualities.
Note that for this second approach to be superior, the valuer needs to achieve a higher level of the qualities more often than just sticking with what’s always worked. To do this, the valuer needs to accurately understand the situation, come up with a variety of possible solutions or approaches, accurately predict the outcomes and knock-on effects of each, evaluate these, and then choose the solution that is most likely to increase the qualities the most (AI developers take note - these are skills an AI would need to have to effectively apply TBA).
Conclusion 2 - Over time, we would expect to see valuers trend towards value systems based directly on the qualities needed to exist, and away from valuing things that generally increase these qualities most of the time in most situations. This simultaneously creates selection pressure for higher cognitive abilities that can better achieve this goal.
6. Once the qualities necessary for existence were valued more and more directly, they would likely start to be valued wherever they were experienced, including in things that didn’t directly contribute to the valuer’s likelihood of continuing to exist. Are order, complexity, dynamics, etc. present in things such as art, music, play, spirituality, etc? Yes! This is the point where the pursuit of these qualities transcends mere existence, and they can begin to be experienced for their own sake and at increasingly higher levels.
7. The pursuit of these qualities at higher levels beyond existence requires time and resources. Therefore, the valuer would need to meet their needs more efficiently and reliably in order to have extra time and resources for these other pursuits. And if they have “extra” most of the time, they are more likely to have “enough” if and when times get hard. For example, a civilization that can afford art and philosophy is a civilization that has mastered its basic needs so efficiently that it has a surplus, and that surplus is the ultimate buffer against unforeseen crises.
Conclusion 3 - Over time, we would expect to see a trend toward a balanced approach to enhancing these qualities in both areas necessary for ongoing existence and those unrelated to existence.
In the next section, we’ll examine how this aligns with what we observe in human value systems.
